Prices, Trends & a 32 % YoY Surge in Core Ski Zones
1 Executive summary
Hakuba’s land market accelerated again in Q2 2025: the National Tax Agency’s roadside survey shows Wadano Main Road hitting ¥37,000 / m², up 32.1 % year-on-year — the fastest rise in Japan. At the village level, MLIT’s 2025 chika-koji (公示地価) data reports average commercial values at ¥29,800 / m² (+33 %) and residential at ¥14,285 / m² (+19.8 %).
- MLIT Land Value 2025 — https://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/ksj/gml/datalist/KsjTmplt-L01-2025.html
- NTA Roadside Values 2025 — https://www.rosenka.nta.go.jp/
- Japan-Forward article on Hakuba chalet boom —
https://japan-forward.com/nagano-hakuba-wadano-biggest-roadside-land-value-increase/
2 Average price scoreboard (Q2 2025)
| Segment | Avg ¥/m² | YoY Δ | Key driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wadano Main Rd. | 37,000 | +32.1 % | Foreign-led chalet boom, ski-front scarcity(japan-forward.com) |
| Hakuba (commercial) | 29,800 | +33.0 % | Hotel & retail demand spike(tochidai.info) |
| Hakuba (residential) | 14,285 | +19.8 % | Post-pandemic relocation trend(tochidai.info) |
| Village-wide average | 19,456 | +24.2 % | Composite of all uses(tochidai.info) |
How to read it: Roadside land values are ~80 % of fair market; ski-front lots often transact 10-30 % above these benchmarks.
3 What’s powering the rally?
3.1 Inbound tourism at record highs
Between Nov 2024 – Feb 2025 Hakuba logged 1.3 million visits, up 14 % YoY — the strongest winter in two decades.nippon.com
3.2 Weak yen = strong USD buyers
The yen traded in the ¥150 range this spring, giving North-American and Australian investors a 10-15 % “discount” versus 2023 levels.
3.3 Transport tail-winds
JR’s faster Hokuriku Shinkansen timetable (3 h 08 m Tokyo → Tsuruga), live since March, cuts transfer time to Hakuba buses by ~50 minutes.jrailpass.com
4 Regulatory & tax notes (H1 2025)
No village-wide zoning changes, but setback rules on slopes >15 ° were tightened in April (affects <<5 % of listings).
NTA rosenka tables for 2025 keep Hakuba’s valuation ratio at 0.8 × chika-koji; inheritance-tax impact unchanged.nta.go.jp
5 Six-month outlook (Q3–Q4 2025)
| Segment | Price call | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Ski-in parcels (Wadano / Happo) | +8 – 12 % | Limited stock, pre-sold condo launches |
| Echoland infill lots | +5 – 7 % | New hospitality projects (La Vigne, Amber Echoland) driving footfall(uchijapan.com) |
| Forest parcels (>2,000 m²) | Flat | Yield-hunters shifting to build-ready plots |
| Commercial streetfront | +10 % | Record RevPAR; café/retail demand spill-over |
6 Actionable takeaways
1.Priority micro-markets:
- Wadano upper village (ski-front ≤¥40 m).
- Central Echoland alleys (¥25 m – ¥35 m, walk-to-dining).
2.Ticket sizes: 300 – 500 m² lots remain the liquidity sweet-spot for chalet developers.
3.Call-to-action: Download the full 18-page data sheet or book a 30-minute strategy call with HakubaLand’s analysts.
7 Further reading
1.Foreign Buyer’s Guide to Purchasing Land in Hakuba (2025 Edition) — coming next week.
2.Understanding Hakuba’s Zoning Code: What You Can Build & Where — publishing July 15.
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